Morning run 5:40am PT · 4 books: day-trade (12) · sector-rotation (12, full slate) · mean-reversion (0, gate passed but no clean setup) · swing (post-close task). Data: live FMP pre-bell + Yahoo EOD bars. Market score 5/10 · premkt MIXED · semis-rebound vs megacap-software crack under an Iran-driven oil bid; energy/financials/health lead the 5d rotation.
After-hours evaluation — auto-runs at 1:30pm PDT every weekday. Click anytime to re-score open trades, append lessons, and refresh the Improvements Queue for tomorrow.
Today's Picks
QQQ Outlook
Sector Rotation
Mean Reversion
Open Trades
Pre-Market
Lessons Applied
Performance
Risk Map
Calendar
Swing - Earnings
My Book
Market Score: 5/10HTF: Constructive-but-rotational uptrend with a sharp leadership split. SPY 745.40 sits above its 20DMA (741.6), 50DMA (739.64) and well above its 200DMA (693.6) - index structure is intact - but QQQ 711.44 has slipped below its 20DMA (720.2) as the megacap-software complex sells off. Trailing-5d leadership has rotated hard: money INTO Energy (rs +4.87 vs SPY on the Iran-driven oil surge), Financials (+2.72) and Health (+2.47), and OUT of Technology (−4.61), Industrials (−2.42) and Cons Disc (−1.51). The semiconductor complex is bouncing after a brutal week (SOX −15% from its late-June record; Intel −21% Wed) on reports Beijing may ease advanced-US-chip import curbs, so semis (SMH +3.6% premkt) and megacap software (META −3.3%, MSFT −1.9%) are moving in opposite directions. VIX is calm at 16.73. Intraday: Two-sided, MIXED premarket (2 risk-on / 3 risk-off) with a clean split: semis rip (SMH +3.63%, NVDA +0.98%, QQQ +1.06%, XLK +1.86%) while megacap software/internet bleed (META −3.25%, MSFT −1.89%, AMZN −1.37%, GOOGL −1.12%, XLC −0.94%) and energy firms on the oil bid (GLD +0.94% on the geopolitics). Favor the oversold-semis reclaim (AMD/NVDA) and the energy/financials/health continuation leaders LONG (PSX/SCHW/AAPL/UNH), while fading the megacap-software rollovers and industrial laggards SHORT on 15-min stop-confirm (MSFT/META/ACN/HON/GOOGL/GE). Data-light session (jobless claims already out); let the open set the range and bank T1 partials early into a headline-driven tape. Semis rebound while megacap software cracks — and a hot war re-prices oil. Chip stocks are bouncing pre-bell (SMH +3.6%) after a punishing week (PHLX Semi index −15% off its late-June record; Intel −21% Wednesday) on reports Beijing may ease restrictions on importing advanced U.S. chip tech, plus strong SK Hynix HBM demand (its U.S. listing was 7x oversubscribed). At the same time megacap software/internet is under AI-capex pressure — META −3.25% (2026 spend guided $125–145B with no cloud-rental income stream), MSFT −1.9%, the MAG7 basket −1.1%. Overlaid on all of it: the U.S.–Iran conflict escalated overnight (fresh U.S. airstrikes; Tehran targeting Gulf states), sending WTI +1.3% to ~$74.5 and Brent +1.4% to ~$79 — the fuel behind energy's leadership. FOMC minutes (Wed) landed into sticky inflation (May CPI 4.2% y/y); Q2 bank earnings start Tue 7/14.
Deep downtrend (-29.3% from 52w high) below the 50/200DMA, bounced into 20DMA resistance (382) and rolling over (premkt -1.89%); AI-capex/rotation pressure on megacap software. Rejection short (screener confluence 3), 15-min stop-confirm; not upsized in a two-sided tape (queue).
Rollover at 50DMA resistance (601) inside a downtrend (-23.7% from 52w high) on AI-capex oversupply fears; premkt -3.25%. Rejection short on the confirmed rollover, stop above 50DMA; daily trend down satisfies Q7.
Relative-strength breakout bucking the megacap-software weakness: +8.3% 5d back to a fresh 52w high (frm52 -0.6%), above all rising MAs (296/296/272), RSI2 58 (room, not overbought), low ATR (2.8%). Flat-top breakout-continuation; the one mega-cap holding up while MSFT/META/GOOGL bleed.
Health leader at a fresh high (frm52 -0.6%): +4.7% 20d above all rising MAs (414/395/339), RSI2 80, low ATR (2.5%). Flat-top breakout in a bull-flow sector (XLV +2.47 RS). Earnings 7/16 is outside the 3-day window.
Failed breakout at the 20DMA (143) in a deep downtrend (-53.9% from 52w high, -21.4% 20d) below all MAs; IBS 0.01 (closed at lows). Flat-base breakdown/rejection short, 15-min stop-confirm; bounce risk into any tech-relief squeeze -> bank early.
Oversold semis-rebound reversal: RSI2 4 after -10.9% 5d, holding its rising 50DMA (473), SMH +3.6% premarket on the China chip-import easing + SK Hynix HBM demand. Oversold-at-support long; HIGH ATR (7.2%) -> SIZE DOWN and bank T1 early per Q1.
Oversold pullback-in-uptrend: RSI2 15 back to the rising 20DMA (328) after a 2-day dip, still +6.3% 20d above all MAs, low ATR (2.3%) fits Q1. XLF bull-secondary. Bounce long; the 3-day window closes 7/13, before 7/14 bank earnings.
Rejection at 20DMA resistance (357) after a failed poke; industrials (bear-secondary), d1 -3.0% leading lower. Rejection short, stop above the 20DMA, 15-min confirm; 3-day window closes 7/13 before 7/16 earnings.
QQQ Outlook — Predictor Dashboard
Premarket + 10 AM ET predictions, pattern archetypes, walk-forward backtest history. Sourced from qqq_predictor/reports/dashboard.html.
QQQ daily gameplan - 2026-07-09 - rendered Jul 9, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET
Levels + regime + if/then plays (OOS-validated). Model = advisory lean only.
Model lean (advisory)
The directional model is one input, not the plan. It leans long by nature and is weakest on down days, so it is shown as a gated lean beneath the gameplan � not a headline call.
PREMARKETgenerated Jul 9, 2026 at 8:01 AM ET
Before 9:30 AM ET (premarket only)
UP
MED CONVICTION - 98% up
Predicted close: $719.11 (+1.08%) - Range: $8.51
Pattern: C1 - Trend Up (43%)
Opens at day low, grinds higher
Entry: Buy open or pullbacks to PM VWAP
Long exit: close (16:00) - Short window: do not short
Likely LOW around11:15 ET @ $710.48
Likely HIGH around12:06 ET @ $722.30
Premarket H/L/VWAP$718.01 / $711.5 / $716.15
Prior close, gap$711.44 (+0.79%)
10:00 AM UPDATEgenerated Jul 9, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET
Updated 10:00 AM ET (after first 30 min)
UP
MED CONVICTION - 97% up
Predicted close: $723.33 (+1.67%) - Range: $9.23
Pattern: C1 - Trend Up (44%)
Opens at day low, grinds higher
Entry: Buy open or pullbacks to PM VWAP
Long exit: close (16:00) - Short window: do not short
The premarket card uses only pre-9:30 data; the 10:00 AM card adds the first 30 minutes. On hostile-regime days the model's direction u
Full historical dashboardscroll inside the frame . iframe srcdoc is sandboxed
Pre-Market Rotation Snapshot — MIXED
As of 08:40 ET · symbols priced: 31/31 · source: live FMP pre-bell quotes vs prior regular close. US-Iran escalation re-prices oil; Q2 bank earnings begin Tue 7/14.
Top inflow: SMH +3.63%, XLK +1.86%, QQQ +1.06%, NVDA +0.98%, GLD +0.94%, XLI +0.73%, IWM +0.48% (semis rip, chips lead, gold bid on geopolitics) · Top outflow: META −3.25%, MSFT −1.89%, AMZN −1.37%, GOOGL −1.12%, XLC −0.94%, VIXY −0.85%, XLY −0.46% (megacap software/internet crack on AI-capex fears)
Broad & Style
Sym
Pre $
Pre %
QQQ
719.01
+1.06%
IWM
294.90
+0.48%
SPY
747.96
+0.34%
RSP
212.65
+0.21%
DIA
523.38
+0.12%
Sectors + Tactical
Sym
Pre $
Pre %
SMH
614.55
+3.63%
XLK
184.78
+1.86%
XLI
181.73
+0.73%
XLB
50.33
+0.34%
XLRE
44.29
+0.32%
XBI
163.39
+0.26%
KRE
73.45
+0.15%
XLF
54.99
+0.04%
XLU
45.36
-0.00%
XLV
161.90
-0.25%
XLP
84.16
-0.27%
XLE
55.42
-0.32%
XLY
114.77
-0.46%
XLC
108.43
-0.94%
Risk Proxies
Sym
Pre $
Pre %
TLT
84.19
-0.20%
HYG
79.76
+0.13%
GLD
377.97
+0.94%
UUP
28.37
+0.04%
VIXY
21.05
-0.85%
Mega-Caps
Sym
Pre $
Pre %
NVDA
206.12
+0.98%
TSLA
394.94
+0.22%
AAPL
312.45
-0.30%
GOOGL
357.88
-1.12%
AMZN
240.28
-1.37%
MSFT
376.11
-1.89%
META
583.53
-3.25%
Risk read: MIXED (risk-on signals 2 vs risk-off 3). A two-sided, MIXED tape (2 risk-on / 3 risk-off) with a sharp internal split: semis rip (SMH +3.63%, NVDA +0.98%, XLK +1.86%) and small-caps firm (IWM +0.48%) while megacap software/internet crack (META −3.25%, MSFT −1.89%, GOOGL −1.12%). Risk proxies are mixed: VIXY −0.85% (vol bleeds = risk-on) and HYG +0.13% (credit calm), but TLT −0.20% (yields up, sticky-inflation overhang) and GLD +0.94% (geopolitical hedge bid). Net: a rotation tape, not a clean risk-on or risk-off — MIXED, no score tiebreaker. Iran-headline and rate risk cap the upside.
12 rotation picks today (full slate, 6 sectors × 1L+1S). Trailing-5d rotation: money INTO XLE Energy (+4.87 vs SPY, oil surge), XLF Financials (+2.72) and XLV Health (+2.47), and OUT OF XLK Technology (−4.61), XLI Industrials (−2.42) and XLY Cons Disc (−1.51). Bull-sector leaders LONG (VLO/MS/JNJ), laggards SHORT as intra-sector hedges (SLB/AXP/PFE); bear-sector weakest SHORT (ADBE/DE/MCD, HALF size), relative-strength holdouts LONG (NVDA/RTX/SBUX, full size). Q3 tertiary (XLV/XLY) size-suppressed; Q2 bear-flow SHORTs half-sized; G36 flags XLY (−1.51 RS, shallow) → MCD SHORT LOW; 15-min stop-confirm before every short.
Bull Sectors — money flowing in
Bull-Primary — XLE Energy (+4.87% vs SPY)
Sym
Dir
Last
Entry
Stop
T1
T2
Conf
TF
Setup
Thesis
VLO
LONG
282.88
281.18-283.56
271.19
294.06
301.36
MED
intraday-3d
trending continuation
Bull-flow leader: refiner at a 52w high (+8.6% 5d / +9.5% 20d), above all rising MAs, RSI2 80, riding the Iran-driven oil surge; cleanest inflow setup in the #1 sector (no primary auto-upgrade per G49).
SLB
SHORT
47.43
47.34-47.71
49.3
45.8
44.72
LOW
intraday-3d
reversal at sr
Intra-sector laggard hedge: -16.1% 20d below the 20/50DMA while the rest of energy rips; the one XLE name not participating. Rejection short at 20DMA resistance - LOW size (shorting into a strong sector is the fragile leg).
Bull-Secondary — XLF Financials (+2.72% vs SPY)
Sym
Dir
Last
Entry
Stop
T1
T2
Conf
TF
Setup
Thesis
MS
LONG
218.07
216.76-218.59
210.62
225.13
229.78
MED
intraday-3d
trending continuation
Bull-flow leader: +4.3% 5d above all rising MAs (217/206/179), RSI2 0 pulled back to the 20DMA in a strong uptrend; clean financials-inflow continuation (secondary rank historically the best-pick tier). Earnings 7/15 outside the window.
AXP
SHORT
336.39
335.78-338.41
347.3
327.03
320.73
MED
intraday-3d
reversal at sr
Intra-sector laggard: below its 200DMA (338) and -12.6% from its 52w high, d1 -3.8% leading the group lower while banks lead - not participating in the XLF inflow. Rejection short at 20DMA resistance, relative-weakness hedge.
Bull-Tertiary — XLV Health (+2.47% vs SPY)
Sym
Dir
Last
Entry
Stop
T1
T2
Conf
TF
Setup
Thesis
JNJ
LONG
263.4
261.82-264.03
255.36
270.96
275.99
LOW
intraday-3d
trending continuation
Bull-flow leader: +13.5% 20d at a fresh high, above all rising MAs (246/235/220), RSI2 67; clean health-inflow continuation. Tertiary rank -> downgraded one tier (Q3). Earnings 7/15 outside the 3-day window.
PFE
SHORT
24.05
24.01-24.19
24.88
23.33
22.85
LOW
intraday-3d
reversal at sr
Intra-sector laggard: below all MAs and -15.8% from its 52w high while health rips, RSI2 95 bounced into resistance. Rejection short - tertiary + laggard -> LOW size.
Bear Sectors — money flowing out
Bear-Primary — XLK Technology (−4.61% vs SPY)
Sym
Dir
Last
Entry
Stop
T1
T2
Conf
TF
Setup
Thesis
ADBE
SHORT
220.94
220.54-222.27
231.56
211.6
205.47
MED
intraday-3d
reversal at sr
Bear-flow leader-down: RSI2 85 stretched into 50DMA resistance (233) inside a deep downtrend (-40.8% from 52w high) below all MAs; leads tech lower. Rejection short, HALF size (bear-flow queue Q2; bear-SHORT is the book-worst leg), 15-min stop-confirm.
NVDA
LONG
204.12
202.90-204.61
196.12
211.76
216.76
MED
intraday-3d
trending continuation
Rotation-proof holdout: the one XLK name bid today (premkt +0.98%, SMH +3.6%) - reclaiming above its rising 200DMA (191) on the China chip-import easing + HBM demand while software bleeds. Bear-sector LONG holdout kept FULL size (Q4, best leg).
Bear-Secondary — XLI Industrials (−2.42% vs SPY)
Sym
Dir
Last
Entry
Stop
T1
T2
Conf
TF
Setup
Thesis
DE
SHORT
596.74
595.67-600.32
623.09
573.67
558.47
MED
intraday-3d
reversal at sr
Bear-flow leader-down: -5.9% 5d below the 20DMA (600), rejection at 20DMA resistance in a soft industrials tape (XLI -2.42 RS). HALF size (bear-flow), 15-min stop-confirm.
RTX
LONG
194.91
193.74-195.38
188.89
200.58
204.35
MED
intraday-3d
trending continuation
Rotation-proof holdout: defense name +9.1% 20d above all rising MAs (188/181/185), RSI2 0 washout, bid on the Iran-conflict defense catalyst while industrials lag. Bear-sector LONG holdout kept FULL size (Q4).
Bear-Tertiary — XLY Cons Disc (−1.51% vs SPY)
Sym
Dir
Last
Entry
Stop
T1
T2
Conf
TF
Setup
Thesis
MCD
SHORT
278.25
277.75-279.92
286.75
270.99
266.08
LOW
intraday-3d
reversal at sr
Bear-flow rejection at 20DMA resistance (277) below the 50/200DMA downtrend, RSI2 41. LOW size: XLY RS -1.51 is shallow (<2.0, G36 bear-SHORT depth floor) AND tertiary rank (Q3) -> double-downgrade.
SBUX
LONG
103.87
103.25-104.12
100.79
106.77
108.7
LOW
intraday-3d
trending continuation
Rotation-proof holdout: +9.5% 20d above all rising MAs (102/102/93) - the discretionary name holding up while the sector bleeds. Bear-sector LONG holdout; tertiary -> LOW size (also RSI2 100 extended).
Mean Reversion Bounce
Regime gate (STRICT): SPY 745.40 > 50DMA 739.64 AND VIX 16.73 < 25 — PASSES. No FOMC-week or quarter-end caution overlay today (mid-July).
No qualifying mean-reversion setups today. Only three names cleared every hard filter (price > 200DMA, RSI2 < 10, IBS < 0.20, avg vol > 5M): BAC (RSI2 0, IBS 0.00), C (RSI2 0, IBS 0.08) and RTX (RSI2 0, IBS 0.04) — and all three fail out. BAC and C report earnings Tue 7/14 (a pending binary catalyst within 5 sessions → disqualified). BAC and RTX both closed ABOVE their 20DMAs (BAC +1.9%, RTX +3.4%) — invalid bounce geometry, no room down to the 20DMA T1 (the same exclusion applied to ABBV on 07-08). C has valid geometry (2.6% below its 20DMA) but is earnings-disqualified. TTWO cleared the technicals but failed the >5M avg-volume filter (3.0M). Per spec, the book is not forced.
Entries (when a clean setup qualifies) next session open; T1 = 20DMA (scale 50%), T2 = 50DMA / prior swing high, time-stop +5 trading days. Open mean-reversion carryovers are re-scored by the 1:30pm PDT evening eval.
Open Trades (carryover · 45)
45 open carryovers — the 07-07 + 07-08 cohorts, day-trade + sector-rotation books. Sim P/L shows pending PM eval; the 1:30pm PDT evening evaluation runs the full intraday 50/40/10 scale-out simulation and owns official scoring.
Issue
Sym
Dir
Conf
Stop
T1
T2
Status
Sim P/L
Notes
2026-07-07
AAPL
LONG
HIGH
301.19
321.79
328.41
open
pending PM eval
sector_rotation
2026-07-07
ADBE
SHORT
MED
232.85
213.41
207.2
open
pending PM eval
trending_continuation
2026-07-07
AEP
LONG
MED
134.46
141.19
143.37
open
pending PM eval
sector_rotation
2026-07-07
AMGN
LONG
MED
356.39
377.5
384.06
open
pending PM eval
reversal
2026-07-07
CSCO
SHORT
MED
115.89
107.83
105.25
open
pending PM eval
trending_continuation
2026-07-07
DE
SHORT
MED
624.84
575.04
559.73
open
pending PM eval
sector_rotation
2026-07-07
DIS
SHORT
LOW
100.66
94.51
92.61
open
pending PM eval
sector_rotation
2026-07-07
ETN
SHORT
MED
414.02
370.43
356.6
open
pending PM eval
flat_top_breakout
2026-07-07
GS
SHORT
MED
1082.66
1009.68
987.12
open
pending PM eval
sector_rotation
2026-07-07
JNJ
LONG
HIGH
259.32
274.9
279.92
open
pending PM eval
trending_continuation
2026-07-07
JPM
LONG
HIGH
329.62
347.87
353.77
open
pending PM eval
trending_continuation
2026-07-07
LLY
LONG
MED
1184.88
1277.82
1307.56
open
pending PM eval
sector_rotation
2026-07-07
LMT
LONG
MED
514.0
551.75
563.42
open
pending PM eval
reversal
2026-07-07
META
LONG
MED
588.18
641.94
659.08
open
pending PM eval
sector_rotation
2026-07-07
MS
LONG
MED
214.77
228.99
233.56
open
pending PM eval
sector_rotation
2026-07-07
ORCL
SHORT
MED
150.99
131.51
125.58
open
pending PM eval
sector_rotation
2026-07-07
PFE
SHORT
MED
24.94
23.39
22.91
open
pending PM eval
sector_rotation
2026-07-07
RTX
LONG
MED
194.6
206.0
209.68
open
pending PM eval
sector_rotation
2026-07-07
SCHW
LONG
MED
99.61
105.96
107.93
open
pending PM eval
flat_top_breakout
2026-07-07
SRE
SHORT
LOW
97.15
93.1
91.83
open
pending PM eval
sector_rotation
2026-07-07
T
SHORT
MED
22.07
20.21
19.64
open
pending PM eval
reversal
2026-07-07
TTWO
LONG
MED
246.45
270.46
278.03
open
pending PM eval
flat_top_breakout
2026-07-08
AAPL
LONG
MED
300.08
320.69
327.3
open
pending PM eval
sector_rotation
2026-07-08
ABBV
LONG
MED
245.06
262.97
268.51
open
pending PM eval
reversal
2026-07-08
AMGN
LONG
MED
356.73
377.82
384.39
open
pending PM eval
reversal
2026-07-08
AVGO
SHORT
MED
392.05
351.92
339.65
open
pending PM eval
reversal
2026-07-08
AXP
SHORT
MED
359.64
341.03
335.22
open
pending PM eval
sector_rotation
2026-07-08
BA
LONG
MED
224.3
238.64
243.26
open
pending PM eval
sector_rotation
2026-07-08
C
SHORT
MED
145.31
136.88
134.26
open
pending PM eval
reversal
2026-07-08
CMCSA
SHORT
LOW
24.67
22.3
21.57
open
pending PM eval
sector_rotation
2026-07-08
COST
SHORT
MED
969.03
921.18
906.5
open
pending PM eval
flat_top_breakout
2026-07-08
CSCO
SHORT
LOW
116.28
107.89
105.3
open
pending PM eval
sector_rotation
2026-07-08
DE
SHORT
MED
628.11
580.19
564.88
open
pending PM eval
trending_continuation
2026-07-08
EA
LONG
MED
204.42
206.79
207.49
open
pending PM eval
sector_rotation
2026-07-08
ETN
SHORT
MED
419.65
374.38
360.55
open
pending PM eval
sector_rotation
2026-07-08
JNJ
LONG
HIGH
259.21
274.79
279.81
open
pending PM eval
trending_continuation
2026-07-08
MRK
LONG
MED
124.72
132.77
135.36
open
pending PM eval
sector_rotation
2026-07-08
MSFT
SHORT
MED
404.44
373.94
364.19
open
pending PM eval
trending_continuation
2026-07-08
NFLX
SHORT
MED
79.33
72.52
70.37
open
pending PM eval
flat_top_breakout
2026-07-08
PFE
SHORT
LOW
24.9
23.35
22.87
open
pending PM eval
sector_rotation
2026-07-08
SO
LONG
MED
95.17
99.24
100.57
open
pending PM eval
sector_rotation
2026-07-08
SPGI
LONG
MED
426.62
463.16
474.64
open
pending PM eval
flat_top_breakout
2026-07-08
SRE
SHORT
LOW
96.8
92.75
91.47
open
pending PM eval
sector_rotation
2026-07-08
UNP
LONG
MED
276.28
291.43
296.1
open
pending PM eval
flat_top_breakout
2026-07-08
WFC
LONG
MED
84.73
89.47
91.0
open
pending PM eval
trending_continuation
Sim P/L = weighted 50/40/10 scale-out ladder (computed by the evening eval); official scoring stays with the 1:30pm PDT evening evaluation.
US Futures & Indices
Sym
Pre $
Pre %
SPY
747.96
+0.34%
QQQ
719.01
+1.06%
IWM
294.90
+0.48%
DIA
523.38
+0.12%
RSP
212.65
+0.21%
Pre-bell ETF tape (vs prior regular close): SPY +0.34%, QQQ +1.06%, IWM +0.48%, RSP +0.21%, DIA +0.12% — modestly green, led by a semis rip (QQQ > SPY). But the strength is narrow: SMH +3.63% and XLK +1.86% mask megacap-software weakness (XLC −0.94%), so breadth is thinner than the index prints suggest.
Risk Proxies
Sym
Pre $
Pre %
TLT
84.19
-0.20%
HYG
79.76
+0.13%
GLD
377.97
+0.94%
UUP
28.37
+0.04%
VIXY
21.05
-0.85%
VIXY −0.85% (vol bleeds, risk-on) and HYG +0.13% (credit calm) against TLT −0.20% (yields up on sticky inflation) and GLD +0.94% (geopolitical hedge bid on the Iran escalation), UUP +0.04% (dollar flat). A mixed, two-sided signature — risk-on in vol/credit, defensive in rates/gold.
Notable Pre-Market Movers
Semis rip — SMH +3.63%, NVDA +0.98%, XLK +1.86%; the oversold chip complex bounces on reports Beijing may ease advanced-US-chip import curbs + strong SK Hynix HBM demand (US listing 7x oversubscribed).
Megacap software/internet cracks — META −3.25% (AI-capex $125–145B, no cloud-rental offset), MSFT −1.89%, GOOGL −1.12%, AMZN −1.37%; the MAG7 basket −1.1%.
Energy firm on the oil bid — WTI +1.3% ~$74.5, Brent +1.4% ~$79 after fresh U.S.–Iran airstrikes; refiners/E&P (PSX/VLO/MPC) at or near 52w highs.
Gold bid, vol bleeds — GLD +0.94% (geopolitical hedge) while VIXY −0.85%; a split risk signature.
Small-caps firm — IWM +0.48%, roughly in line with SPY; breadth steady beneath the megacap-software drag.
Risk-Off / A4-INVERSE Trigger Panel
NOT firing — MIXED tape. Premkt read is MIXED (2 risk-on / 3 risk-off): semis rip but megacap software cracks, vol bleeds but gold/rates stay defensive — no clean signal, no risk-off trigger and no risk-on tiebreaker. Watch the SPY 20DMA (~742): SPY 745.40 is holding above it — a sustained hold keeps the index structure constructive and pressures the SHORT book, while a loss of 742 with QQQ already under its 20DMA would confirm the megacap-tech-led pullback and validate the software/industrial laggard SHORTs. Any U.S.–Iran re-escalation headline whips oil and the whole risk tape fast.
Top Catalysts
Semiconductor rebound — chips bounce after a −15% week on reports Beijing may ease advanced-US-chip import curbs; SK Hynix HBM demand strong (US listing 7x oversubscribed). Viewed as a mid-cycle reset, not a top.
Megacap AI-capex fears — META −3.3% on $125–145B 2026 spend with no cloud-rental income; broad MAG7 de-rating pressure (basket −1.1%).
U.S.–Iran escalation — fresh U.S. airstrikes overnight, Tehran targeting Gulf states; WTI +1.3% (~$74.5) / Brent +1.4% (~$79). The engine behind energy leadership and the gold bid.
FOMC minutes (Wed 7/8) into sticky inflation — May CPI 4.2% y/y (highest since Apr-2023); TLT soft. Q2 bank earnings begin Tue 7/14 (JPM/C/BAC/WFC/GS).
Improvements Queue — applied to today's picks
Queue source: 7/8 evening evaluation (8 items, daily_evaluation_2026-07-08.docx). Each row = one queue item + how this morning run acted on it.
Improvement (from 7/8 evening eval)
How today acted on it
Q1 · Target geometry (HARD): T1 distance ≤ 1.2× the 5d ATR% AND never > 4%; 7 trades expired unresolved last run with targets too far for a 3-day window.
Applied as a selection filter: preferred low-ATR names (energy PSX/VLO ~2.8%, financials SCHW/JPM/MS ~2.3–2.8%) whose 1.2×ATR T1 stays inside 4%. The one high-ATR reversal long AMD (7.2%) is explicitly sized down + bank-T1-early.
Q2 · Bull-flow weighting (HARD): bull-flow held 94% vs bear-flow 53% last run — cap bear-sector exposure and issue bull-flow picks only in positive-RS sectors.
Applied: all three bull sectors (XLE +4.87 / XLF +2.72 / XLV +2.47) have positive 5d RS. The three bear-flow rotation SHORTs ADBE / DE / MCD are HALF-sized (bear-SHORT is the book-worst leg, ~30%).
Q3 · Rank ordering: primary held best last run but cumulative primary is still worst — downgrade TERTIARY-rank picks one tier; do NOT auto-upgrade primary.
Applied: XLV bull-tertiary (JNJ/PFE) and XLY bear-tertiary (MCD/SBUX) each downgraded one conviction tier. VLO (XLE primary) kept MED — no primary auto-upgrade.
Q4 · Keep bear-sector LONG holdouts (the book's best leg) at full size while trailing-15 > 35%.
Applied: NVDA (XLK, semis reclaim above 200DMA), RTX (XLI, defense bid +9% 20d) and SBUX (XLY, +9.5% 20d) kept as full-size holdouts — the rotation-proof names resisting their sector outflow.
Q5 · Recompute bear-sector RS each morning; drop any SHORT whose sector flipped to positive RS.
Applied: bear sectors XLK −4.61 / XLI −2.42 / XLY −1.51 are all still negative (no flip) → the bear-side shorts stay valid. XLE had flipped bull weeks ago and is today's bull-primary (energy longs, no XLE short thesis).
Q6 · First-day stop tightening on MED/LOW rotation LONGs (set the first-day stop at the entry-zone low, not a wider swing).
Applied to the MED/LOW rotation LONGs (MS/JNJ/SBUX and the holdouts) — first-day stop pinned to the entry-zone low after last run's same-day BAC-L stop.
Q7 · Breakout-fade SHORTs require a flat/down daily trend (a fade into an uptrend gets run over).
Applied: every SHORT is a rejection into resistance inside a down/flat daily trend (MSFT/META/GOOGL/ACN below their 50DMAs; HON/GE/DE industrial laggards). No breakdown shorts and no fades of uptrending names.
Q8 · EO-reject downgrade (armed): convert eps_miss/guide_cut auto-rejects into tracked-defers; stop hard-rejecting EO candidates that gapped > 8% within a week of scan.
Routed to the post-close earnings-overreaction-scan (1:45pm PDT), which owns swing-rejection logic — not a morning day-trade item.
Performance (running)
Cumulative decisive hit-rate: 55.4% (240W / 433 decisive) as of 7/8 PM · 849 logged trades after today's 24 issues (12 day-trade + 12 rotation + 0 mean-reversion).
Last scored run (7/8 PM) resolved 58 opens: 4 T1 wins (VLO, NVDA, MPC, PLTR), 2 stops (AVGO, BAC), 7 expired, 45 still open — decisive 4/6 = 67%. By book: day-trade 2/3; sector-rotation 2/3 (both winners were bear-sector LONG holdouts VLO + MPC).
Rotation thesis-held: bull 15/16 (94%); bear 8/15 (53%) — XLE flipped bull (energy ripped), so bear-flow SHORTs are half-sized today (Q2). Rank this run: primary 92%, secondary 60%, tertiary 67% — but cumulative primary is still worst, so no auto-upgrade.
Filter discipline (rejected tracker): 54.0% of scored rejections correct (27/50).
Per-category decisive win-rate badges appear next to the Today's Picks headings (injected from trade_log.json by patch_artifact_winrates.py).
Today's Risk Map
9:30–10:00 ET — two-sided open. Semis gap up, megacap software gaps down; let the first 15–30m set the range. Do not chase the semis gap; confirm LONG reclaims on holds above the open, bank T1 partials early.
SPY 20DMA (~742) is the line — SPY 745.40 above it, but QQQ 711.44 already below its 20DMA (720). A hold keeps index structure constructive; a loss of 742 confirms the megacap-tech pullback and validates the software/industrial laggard SHORTs.
SHORT entries need a 15-min stop-confirm beyond resistance (rejection-short construction); beaten laggards (ACN/ORCL/CRM) and the megacaps can squeeze on any semis-led risk-on flush.
Semis-rebound is a bounce, not a confirmed trend — SOX is −15% off its record and the reclaim is one session; size the oversold reversal longs (AMD) down and bank T1 early (Q1).
45 open carryovers (07-07 + 07-08) reaching intraday-3d expiry over the next sessions; don't double up on the same names. The 1:30pm PDT evening eval reconciles them.
Headline / rate risk — any U.S.–Iran re-escalation whips oil and the risk tape; sticky inflation (May CPI 4.2%) keeps yields a headwind into next week's bank earnings + June CPI.
Calendar items are scheduled events; verify exact release times intraday.
Swing — Earnings Overreaction
Updated by post-close earnings-overreaction-scan at 1:45pm PDT. Showing latest accepted swing candidates + open swing positions.
Latest scan on record: the post-close earnings-overreaction-scan (1:45pm PDT) owns swing generation. Open earnings_overreaction positions (if any) render below from trade_log.json. Q8 routed here: convert eps_miss/guide_cut auto-rejects into tracked-defers; stop hard-rejecting EO candidates that gapped > 8% within a week of scan.
My Book
Entries are saved to both this browser's localStorage AND my_book.json in your Daily Outlook workspace folder. On every artifact load, the book is auto-restored from my_book.json if localStorage has been cleared (which can happen when the daily scheduled task replaces the artifact, or after app restarts).
No positions yet. Use "+ Took" on a pick to add one (inside Cowork).
Daily candles (last ~45 sessions, SIP feed at report generation). Entry band = blue, SL = red, TP1/TP2 = green/teal.