Morning run 5:40am PT · 4 books: day-trade (12) · sector-rotation (12, full slate) · mean-reversion (0, regime gate FAILS: SPY < 50DMA) · swing (post-close task). Data: live FMP pre-bell + Yahoo EOD bars. Market score 6/10 · premkt MIXED · chip-led relief into a heavy earnings week; soft 5d tape, energy + defensives led the trailing week.
After-hours evaluation — auto-runs at 1:30pm PDT every weekday. Click anytime to re-score open trades, append lessons, and refresh the Improvements Queue for tomorrow.
Today's Picks
QQQ Outlook
Sector Rotation
Mean Reversion
Open Trades
Pre-Market
Lessons Applied
Performance
Risk Map
Calendar
Swing - Earnings
My Book
Market Score: 6/10HTF: Constructive uptrend digesting a shallow pullback beneath the short MAs, with a chip-led relief building pre-bell. SPY 742.09 sits just under its 20DMA (744.79) and 50DMA (744.55) but well above its 200DMA (697.07); QQQ 696.06 is below its 20/50DMA (716/719) yet holds its 200DMA (641). The trailing-5d tape is soft (SPY −0.95%) and leadership has tilted toward ENERGY + defensives — money into Energy (rs +3.06 vs SPY), Real Estate (+2.14) and Cons Staples (+1.27), and OUT of Technology (−2.12), Utilities (−0.76) and Health (−0.39). But the pre-bell tape flips that: semis are ripping (SMH +3.24%, NVDA +1.21%, XLK +1.69%) into a heavy Big-Tech earnings week. VIX is calm at 17.85 (−4.3%). Computed regime — market risk on, breadth 67.3% uptrend | SPY: strong uptrend (M ▲ up / W ▲ up / D ▲ up; vol normal) | QQQ: strong uptrend (M ▲ up / W ▲ up / D ▲ up_weak; vol high) (HTF as of 2026-07-20; STALE) Intraday: Risk-on lean concentrated in semis/tech pre-bell (QQQ +1.17%, SMH +3.24%, KRE +1.20%) while mega-cap software is heavy (MSFT −1.07%, AAPL −0.42%, GOOGL −0.29%) and defensives soften (XLV −0.73%). Favor the chip/AI reclaim longs at support (NVDA RSI2 9 on the rising 200DMA, PLTR/SNOW momentum) and the energy continuation leaders (COP/XOM in the bull-primary XLE), while fading the broken laggards (C/COST/HD/VZ/NEE SHORT on 15-min confirmation). MIXED premarket (ron 3 / roff 2) — no clean directional edge, so let the open set the range and bank T1 partials early into earnings-week headline risk. Chip-led relief into a heavy earnings week. Stocks slipped Monday on rising U.S.–Iran tensions, but futures are higher pre-bell (Dow +0.2%, S&P +0.4%, Nasdaq-100 +1.3%) as semiconductors revive ahead of a flood of results. Backdrop stays two-sided: indices hold their 200DMAs and VIX is calm (17.85), but SPY sits just under its 20/50DMA on a soft 5d tape and the sector map tilts toward energy + defensives. Q2 earnings season peaks this week — 73 reports Tue, 134 Wed, 169 Thu — with Big Tech in focus; the market has been punishing misses harder than usual. Fresh U.S. tariffs on Canada and Middle-East hostilities are the tape risks. The Fed meets next week (Jul 28–29).
Energy leader in the bull-primary sector (XLE RS +3.06 vs SPY): +2.5% 5d / +7.4% 20d above all rising MAs (ma200 106.59), RSI2 100. Sector-flow + own uptrend align (Q7 HIGH gate). Extended -> bank T1 partials early.
Financials continuation: +11.8% 20d above all MAs (ma20 97.74 / ma200 95.12), RSI2 44 (pulled back in trend, not overbought); with-trend continuation long as XLF holds positive RS (+0.90).
Financials laggard -8.5% 5d / -10.0% 20d below all MAs (ma50 133.85), RSI2 0; rejection short at the 50DMA from below (screener rr 2.43), 15-min confirm on the rollover (Q5). Bounce risk from RSI2 0 -> bank early.
Defense laggard -24.7% from 52w high below 20/50DMA (ma20 515.27), RSI2 14; rejection short at the 20DMA from below (screener rr 2.70), with-trend continuation, 15-min confirm (Q5).
Software momentum +18.1% 20d clearing the 20/50DMA flat top (ma20 256.56 / ma50 225.83), RSI2 83 above all MAs; flat-top breakout-continuation. Book half at T1, trail for T2.
AI-momentum name +5.0% 20d reclaiming the 20DMA (125.57) with RSI2 54 (not overbought); flat-base breakout long into the pre-bell tech bid (XLK +1.69% premkt).
Staples laggard -14.5% from 52w high below 50/200DMA (ma50 976.24), RSI2 0 IBS 0.25; rejection short at the 20DMA (939.52) from below (screener rr 2.01), flat-base breakdown, 15-min confirm (Q5).
Home-improvement downtrend -21.4% from 52w high below all MAs (ma20 342.52), RSI2 0; rejection short at the 20DMA from below (screener rr 2.45), flat-base breakdown, 15-min confirm (Q5). Bounce risk RSI2 0 -> bank early.
RSI2 9, -3.5% 20d, holding the rising 200DMA (192.48) and above the 20DMA (201.75); premkt +1.21% with SMH +3.24% / XLK +1.69% as chips revive ahead of Big Tech earnings. Oversold reversal reclaim long. (Note: a 07-17 NVDA-S carryover is at day-2 near expiry and the semis rip invalidates that short; this fresh long is the current signal.)
RSI2 0, +7.9% 20d, holding above all rising MAs (ma20 360.90 / ma200 340.06) after a -0.6% day; oversold reversal long off support in an intact uptrend (health name, taken on the name not the sector flow).
Telecom laggard -15.3% from 52w high below the 50DMA (45.68), RSI2 0; reversal fade at the 20DMA (43.59) from below (screener rr 2.27), 15-min confirm (Q5).
Utility laggard -10.1% from 52w high, flat/below the 20DMA (87.96), RSI2 0; reversal fade at the 20DMA from below (screener rr 1.69), 15-min confirm (Q5). Utilities are a bear-flow sector (XLU -0.76).
QQQ Outlook — Predictor Dashboard
Premarket + 10 AM ET predictions, pattern archetypes, walk-forward backtest history. Sourced from qqq_predictor/reports/dashboard.html.
QQQ daily gameplan - 2026-07-21 - rendered Jul 21, 2026 at 8:00 AM ET
Levels + regime + if/then plays (OOS-validated). Model = advisory lean only.
Model lean (advisory)
The directional model is one input, not the plan. It leans long by nature and is weakest on down days, so it is shown as a gated lean beneath the gameplan � not a headline call.
PREMARKETgenerated Jul 21, 2026 at 8:00 AM ET
Before 9:30 AM ET (premarket only)
UP
MED CONVICTION - 85% up
Predicted close: $705.20 (+1.31%) - Range: $9.11
Pattern: C1 - Trend Up (34%)
Opens at day low, grinds higher
Entry: Buy open or pullbacks to PM VWAP
Long exit: close (16:00) - Short window: do not short
Likely LOW around11:57 ET @ $696.82
Likely HIGH around11:32 ET @ $712.85
Premarket H/L/VWAP$706.11 / $701.63 / $704.8
Prior close, gap$696.06 (+1.26%)
10:00 AM UPDATE
Pending - auto-updates at 10:00 AM ET (after 30 min of regular trading) Last checked: Jul 21, 2026 at 8:00 AM ET
The premarket card uses only pre-9:30 data; the 10:00 AM card adds the first 30 minutes. On hostile-regime days the model's direction uses the calibrated probability and high-conviction UP is capped (CC-015), because unconditional QQQ direction is close to a coinflip (~57% up, the up-drift). Trust the levels, the expected range, and the traps � those are the validated edges � and treat the up/down lean as advisory.
Full historical dashboardscroll inside the frame · iframe srcdoc is sandboxed
Pre-Market Rotation Snapshot — MIXED
As of 08:40 ET · symbols priced: 31/31 · source: live FMP pre-bell quotes vs prior regular close. Heavy Q2 earnings week (Big Tech in focus); Fed meets next week Jul 28-29.
Risk read: MIXED (risk-on signals 3 vs risk-off 2). A chip-led risk-on lean inside a MIXED tape: semis rip (SMH +3.24%, NVDA +1.21%, XLK +1.69%) and regional banks firm (KRE +1.20%) while mega-cap software is heavy (MSFT −1.07%, AAPL −0.42%) and defensives soften (XLV −0.73%, XLP −0.16%). Risk proxies lean mildly risk-on: VIXY −1.55% and HYG +0.11% with TLT −0.10% (bonds slip) — but gold is bid (+1.22%) and the dollar flat, so the signal is not clean. Net: ron 3 / roff 2 = MIXED, no score tiebreaker. Narrow semis leadership + earnings-week headline risk argue for a two-sided, range-y session.
12 rotation picks today (full slate, 6 sectors × 1L+1S). Trailing-5d rotation: money INTO XLE Energy (+3.06 vs SPY), XLRE Real Estate (+2.14), XLP Cons Staples (+1.27) and OUT OF XLK Technology (−2.12), XLU Utilities (−0.76), XLV Health (−0.39). Bull-sector leaders LONG (XOM/PLD/CL), laggards SHORT as intra-sector hedges (HAL/DLR/KMB); bear-sector weakest SHORT (CSCO/XEL/PFE), relative-strength holdouts LONG (MSFT/D/ABBV). Q3: XLP tertiary size-suppressed; Q4: holdouts kept MED not up-sized; Q5: bear-flow SHORTs half-size + 15-min confirm.
Bull Sectors — money flowing in
Bull-Primary — XLE Energy (+3.06% vs SPY)
Sym
Dir
Last
Entry
Stop
T1
T2
Conf
TF
Setup
Thesis
XOM
LONG
148.36
147.47-148.72
144.58
151.88
154.24
MED
intraday-3d
trending continuation
Bull-primary leader: XLE RS +3.06 vs SPY (money flowing IN); XOM +2.7% 5d / +7.7% 20d above all MAs (ma200 137.25), RSI2 100. Cleanest inflow setup in the #1 sector, full size (Q3). No rank auto-upgrade (G49).
HAL
SHORT
35.11
35.05-35.32
36.36
34.03
33.31
LOW
intraday-3d
reversal at sr
Intra-sector laggard hedge: -18.3% from 52w high, below the 50DMA (37.81) while the energy complex rips; the one XLE name NOT participating in the inflow. Rejection short at the 50DMA, LOW size (Q5; XLE +3.06 < +4 so allowed).
Bull-Secondary — XLRE Real Estate (+2.14% vs SPY)
Sym
Dir
Last
Entry
Stop
T1
T2
Conf
TF
Setup
Thesis
PLD
LONG
147.48
146.60-147.83
143.42
151.27
153.81
MED
intraday-3d
trending continuation
Bull-secondary leader: XLRE RS +2.14 (>= +2.0 floor -> full size, Q3); PLD +3.7% 5d / +4.9% 20d above all MAs (ma200 133.89). Clean real-estate-inflow continuation.
DLR
SHORT
176.25
175.93-177.31
182.52
170.84
167.22
LOW
intraday-3d
reversal at sr
Intra-sector laggard hedge: -13.6% from 52w high, -6.3% 20d below the 20/50DMA (181.21/185.92), RSI2 100 bounced into resistance; not participating in the REIT inflow -> rejection short at the 20DMA, LOW size.
Bull-Tertiary — XLP Cons Staples (+1.27% vs SPY)
Sym
Dir
Last
Entry
Stop
T1
T2
Conf
TF
Setup
Thesis
CL
LONG
91.93
91.38-92.15
89.21
94.49
96.19
LOW
intraday-3d
trending continuation
Bull-tertiary leader: XLP RS +1.27 (< +2.0 -> one tier down, Q3); CL +2.7% 20d above all MAs (ma200 85.43). Clean staples-inflow continuation, tertiary size-suppressed.
KMB
SHORT
108.48
108.28-109.13
112.54
104.96
102.62
LOW
intraday-3d
reversal at sr
Intra-sector laggard hedge: -20.7% from 52w high below the 20DMA (109.25), RSI2 17; lagging the staples inflow -> rejection short at the 20DMA, tertiary LOW size.
Bear Sectors — money flowing out
Bear-Primary — XLK Technology (−2.12% vs SPY)
Sym
Dir
Last
Entry
Stop
T1
T2
Conf
TF
Setup
Thesis
CSCO
SHORT
110.7
110.50-111.36
115.78
106.24
103.31
LOW
intraday-3d
reversal at sr
Bear-primary weakest: XLK RS -2.12 (deepest outflow); CSCO -7.2% 5d / -7.4% 20d below 20/50DMA (115.98/116.33), RSI2 65 bounced into resistance. Rejection short at the 20/50DMA, gated one tier down + half size (Q5); 15-min confirm. Watch the pre-bell tech bid (XLK +1.69%) -> bank early.
MSFT
LONG
402.29
399.88-403.26
389.14
414.72
422.94
MED
intraday-3d
trending continuation
Rotation-proof holdout: +2.9% 5d / +6.0% 20d holding above the 20/50DMA (382.30/401.28) as XLK bleeds on 5d RS; the one mega-cap tech holding up. Bear-flow LONG holdout kept but sized MED (Q4 WATCH, leg 0-1 07-20).
Bear-Secondary — XLU Utilities (−0.76% vs SPY)
Sym
Dir
Last
Entry
Stop
T1
T2
Conf
TF
Setup
Thesis
XEL
SHORT
78.67
78.53-79.14
80.92
76.76
75.46
LOW
intraday-3d
reversal at sr
Bear-secondary weakest: XLU RS -0.76 (outflow); XEL -2.2% 5d below 20/50DMA (80.28/79.52), RSI2 0. Rejection short at the 50DMA from below (screener rr 1.71), gated one tier down + half size (Q5), 15-min confirm.
D
LONG
70.36
69.94-70.53
68.93
71.66
72.56
MED
intraday-3d
trending continuation
Rotation-proof holdout: +2.9% 20d above all MAs (ma20 69.72 / ma200 62.83) while utilities bleed on 5d RS; a name holding up despite the XLU outflow. Bear-flow LONG holdout kept, sized MED (Q4 WATCH).
Bear-Tertiary — XLV Health (−0.39% vs SPY)
Sym
Dir
Last
Entry
Stop
T1
T2
Conf
TF
Setup
Thesis
PFE
SHORT
24.75
24.71-24.90
25.44
24.17
23.77
LOW
intraday-3d
reversal at sr
Bear-tertiary weakest: XLV RS -0.39 (outflow); PFE -13.3% from 52w high below all MAs (ma50 25.24), RSI2 0. Rejection short at the 50DMA from below (screener rr 2.17), gated one tier down + half size + tertiary (Q5), 15-min confirm.
ABBV
LONG
253.38
251.86-253.99
245.77
260.53
265.29
MED
intraday-3d
trending continuation
Rotation-proof holdout: +2.2% 5d / +17.0% 20d above all MAs (ma200 223.60), RSI2 8, -3.0% from 52w high; the strongest name resisting the health outflow. Bear-flow LONG holdout kept at MED on genuine strength (Q4).
Mean Reversion Bounce
Regime gate (STRICT): SPY 742.09 < 50DMA 744.55 — FAILS (SPY closed just below its 50DMA). VIX 17.85 < 25 passes, but both conditions are required. No mean-reversion bounce picks today.
No qualifying mean-reversion setups today. The STRICT regime gate FAILS: SPY closed 742.09, just under its 50DMA (744.55), so the long-only Connors bounce book is stood down regardless of individual RSI2/IBS readings. (Pre-bell SPY 744.66 nudges back above the 50DMA, but the gate is measured on the prior close.) Per spec the book is not forced when the regime gate fails. One mean-reversion carryover (OXY, 07-17) remains open and is re-scored by the 1:30pm PDT evening eval.
Entries (when the regime gate passes and a clean setup qualifies) next session open; T1 = 20DMA (scale 50%), T2 = 50DMA / prior swing high, time-stop +5 trading days. Gate re-checks each morning: needs SPY > 50DMA AND VIX < 25.
Open Trades (carryover · 45)
45 open carryovers — the 07-17 + 07-20 cohorts, day-trade + sector-rotation books. Sim P/L shows pending PM eval; the 1:30pm PDT evening evaluation runs the full intraday 50/40/10 scale-out simulation and owns official scoring.
Issue
Sym
Dir
Conf
Stop
T1
T2
Status
Sim P/L
Notes
2026-07-17
AAPL
LONG
MED
322.86
343.06
349.57
open
pending PM eval
sector_rotation
2026-07-17
AEP
LONG
MED
129.7
136.02
138.0
open
pending PM eval
reversal
2026-07-17
AMD
SHORT
MED
552.38
454.51
424.83
open
pending PM eval
sector_rotation
2026-07-17
AMT
SHORT
LOW
174.78
163.86
160.48
open
pending PM eval
sector_rotation
2026-07-17
AMZN
SHORT
MED
259.81
241.26
235.54
open
pending PM eval
reversal
2026-07-17
AVGO
SHORT
MED
393.04
356.54
344.92
open
pending PM eval
trending_continuation
2026-07-17
CRM
SHORT
MED
181.47
164.93
159.86
open
pending PM eval
reversal
2026-07-17
CVX
SHORT
LOW
188.62
179.85
177.11
open
pending PM eval
sector_rotation
2026-07-17
GOOGL
SHORT
MED
366.87
339.86
331.4
open
pending PM eval
flat_top_breakout
2026-07-17
HON
SHORT
LOW
237.76
216.26
209.66
open
pending PM eval
sector_rotation
2026-07-17
JNJ
LONG
MED
241.0
257.72
262.9
open
pending PM eval
reversal
2026-07-17
JPM
LONG
MED
334.01
351.67
357.39
open
pending PM eval
trending_continuation
2026-07-17
LLY
SHORT
LOW
1223.93
1121.09
1089.5
open
pending PM eval
sector_rotation
2026-07-17
MO
LONG
MED
70.99
74.94
76.22
open
pending PM eval
sector_rotation
2026-07-17
MPC
LONG
HIGH
295.13
316.01
322.71
open
pending PM eval
trending_continuation
2026-07-17
MRK
LONG
LOW
123.24
131.79
134.54
open
pending PM eval
sector_rotation
2026-07-17
NVDA
SHORT
MED
215.8
199.37
194.12
open
pending PM eval
trending_continuation
2026-07-17
O
LONG
LOW
64.35
67.04
67.92
open
pending PM eval
sector_rotation
2026-07-17
RTX
LONG
MED
189.45
198.92
201.99
open
pending PM eval
sector_rotation
2026-07-17
TSLA
SHORT
MED
411.99
367.05
352.78
open
pending PM eval
flat_top_breakout
2026-07-17
VLO
LONG
MED
287.19
312.79
320.96
open
pending PM eval
sector_rotation
2026-07-17
WELL
LONG
MED
235.83
248.4
252.26
open
pending PM eval
flat_top_breakout
2026-07-17
WMT
SHORT
MED
118.56
111.85
109.77
open
pending PM eval
sector_rotation
2026-07-20
ABNB
LONG
MED
140.36
150.85
154.09
open
pending PM eval
reversal
2026-07-20
ACN
SHORT
MED
152.17
135.23
129.85
open
pending PM eval
trending_continuation
2026-07-20
ADBE
LONG
LOW
226.51
247.56
254.28
open
pending PM eval
sector_rotation
2026-07-20
BAC
LONG
HIGH
59.76
62.67
63.62
open
pending PM eval
trending_continuation
2026-07-20
CAT
SHORT
LOW
938.9
828.02
794.2
open
pending PM eval
sector_rotation
2026-07-20
CCI
SHORT
MED
82.13
76.35
74.5
open
pending PM eval
sector_rotation
2026-07-20
DIS
SHORT
MED
100.47
95.3
93.68
open
pending PM eval
reversal
2026-07-20
GS
LONG
MED
1018.2
1106.39
1133.52
open
pending PM eval
reversal
2026-07-20
LOW
SHORT
MED
215.5
200.72
196.11
open
pending PM eval
flat_top_breakout
2026-07-20
MCD
SHORT
MED
276.26
260.38
255.44
open
pending PM eval
reversal
2026-07-20
NFLX
SHORT
MED
72.09
65.33
63.19
open
pending PM eval
flat_top_breakout
2026-07-20
NKE
SHORT
LOW
45.64
41.95
40.77
open
pending PM eval
sector_rotation
2026-07-20
ORCL
SHORT
MED
134.71
118.34
113.15
open
pending PM eval
sector_rotation
2026-07-20
PANW
LONG
MED
337.27
383.11
397.7
open
pending PM eval
flat_top_breakout
2026-07-20
PEP
SHORT
LOW
142.28
132.21
128.98
open
pending PM eval
sector_rotation
2026-07-20
PM
LONG
LOW
187.12
199.96
203.95
open
pending PM eval
sector_rotation
2026-07-20
PSX
LONG
MED
200.04
214.92
219.57
open
pending PM eval
sector_rotation
2026-07-20
SBUX
LONG
LOW
101.99
108.8
110.99
open
pending PM eval
sector_rotation
2026-07-20
SLB
SHORT
LOW
48.27
45.79
44.99
open
pending PM eval
sector_rotation
2026-07-20
SPG
LONG
MED
223.74
234.8
238.18
open
pending PM eval
sector_rotation
2026-07-20
TXN
SHORT
MED
300.99
267.56
256.96
open
pending PM eval
trending_continuation
2026-07-20
UNH
LONG
MED
410.78
440.63
450.2
open
pending PM eval
trending_continuation
Sim P/L = weighted 50/40/10 scale-out ladder (computed by the evening eval); official scoring stays with the 1:30pm PDT evening evaluation.
US Futures & Indices
Sym
Pre $
Pre %
SPY
744.66
+0.35%
QQQ
704.20
+1.17%
IWM
293.18
+0.30%
DIA
518.86
+0.18%
RSP
212.70
+0.13%
Pre-bell ETF tape (vs prior regular close): QQQ +1.17%, SPY +0.35%, IWM +0.30%, DIA +0.18%, RSP +0.13% — broadly higher, Nasdaq-led. Index futures screens: Dow +0.2%, S&P +0.4%, Nasdaq-100 +1.3%. Semis are the engine (SMH +3.24%) as chips revive into Big-Tech earnings; small-caps keep pace with the broad tape.
Risk Proxies
Sym
Pre $
Pre %
TLT
83.81
-0.10%
HYG
79.77
+0.11%
GLD
372.07
+1.22%
UUP
28.37
-0.07%
VIXY
20.90
-1.55%
VIXY −1.55% (vol bleeds) and HYG +0.11% (credit firm) with TLT −0.10% (bonds slip) lean mildly risk-on — but GLD +1.22% (gold bid) and UUP roughly flat muddy it. A mildly risk-on but not-clean signature: ron 3 / roff 2 = MIXED.
Notable Pre-Market Movers
Semis rip — SMH +3.24%, NVDA +1.21%; XLK +1.69%. The chip complex revives, leading the pre-bell tape ahead of a heavy Big-Tech earnings slate.
Gold bid — GLD +1.22% even with equities higher — a haven undertone (Iran tensions / tariffs) alongside the risk-on chip move.
Mega-cap software heavy — MSFT −1.07%, AAPL −0.42%, GOOGL −0.29%, AMZN −0.26%; the group lags the semis-led rip pre-earnings.
Defensives soften — XLV −0.73%, XLP −0.16%, XLU −0.11%; money leans out of last week's defensive leadership.
Risk-Off / A4-INVERSE Trigger Panel
NOT firing — MIXED tape. Premkt read is MIXED (3 risk-on vs 2 risk-off): semis/banks bid but software soft and defensives weak, with gold up — no clean signal, no risk-off trigger and no risk-on tiebreaker. Watch the SPY 20/50DMA cluster (~744.6–744.8): SPY closed 742.09 just below it and pre-bell 744.66 pokes back above — a reclaim and hold keeps the uptrend pressing and squeezes the SHORT book; a rejection there, with the soft 5d tape, re-asserts the pullback and validates the laggard SHORTs. Earnings-week gaps can exaggerate both directions.
Top Catalysts
Q2 earnings peak week — 73 reports Tue 7/21, 134 Wed, 169 Thu; Big Tech in focus. Analysts model ~22% YoY S&P EPS growth, ~half tied to AI-infrastructure spend; misses are being punished harder than usual.
Chip revival — semiconductors lead the pre-bell tape (SMH +3.24%, NVDA +1.21%) on renewed AI/hardware optimism ahead of results.
Trade & geopolitics — fresh U.S. tariffs on Canada and rising U.S.–Iran / Middle-East tensions are the headline risks; gold's +1.2% bid reflects the haven undertone.
Fed meeting next week (Jul 28–29) — policy statement + presser, no fresh dot-plot; positioning firms into it.
Improvements Queue — applied to today's picks
Queue source: 7/20 evening evaluation (8 items, daily_evaluation_2026-07-20.docx). Each row = one queue item + how this morning run acted on it.
Improvement (from 7/20 evening eval)
How today acted on it
1 · Q1 trade geometry (kept): T1 ≤ 1.2× 5d-ATR% AND ≤ 4% absolute; stop ≤ 1.5× 5d-ATR% and never wider than the T1 distance.
Applied. Every pick's entry/stop/T1/T2 is computed by the frozen levels() geometry function, which caps T1 at min(1.2×ATR%, 4%) and the stop at 1.5×ATR% / ≤ T1 distance.
2 · Q2 exposure hygiene: one open pick per symbol+direction across ALL books; 2-session cooling-off after any stop (KO/UNP/UPS stopped 07-20 → blocked both directions until 07-22).
Applied. KO, UNP and UPS are excluded in both directions. Every one of today's 24 issues is FRESH against the 46 open carryovers (07-17 ×24 + 07-20 ×22) — no symbol+direction re-issued.
3 · Q3 bull-flow on a soft tape (SPY 5d −0.95%): bull-primary full size; secondary needs RS ≥ +2.0 else one tier down; none below +1.0.
Applied. XLE (+3.06, primary) and XLRE (+2.14, ≥+2.0) run full size; XLP (+1.27, <+2.0) is one tier down — CL / KMB issued LOW.
4 · Q4 bear-sector LONG holdouts (WATCH, tightening): the leg went 0-1 on 07-20 (UPS) after 0-2 on 07-15; keep full size only while trailing-15 > 35%, else downgrade a tier.
Applied. Holdouts MSFT (XLK), D (XLU) and ABBV (XLV) are kept on genuine strength (all above their key MAs) but sized MED — not up-sized — pending the leg's next resolved result.
5 · Q5 SHORT-leg gates: bear-SHORT one tier down, half size, 15-min confirm; no intra-sector laggard short when the sector 5d RS ≥ +4.
Applied. The bear-flow rotation SHORTs CSCO / XEL / PFE are LOW + half-size with 15-min confirmation; HAL (XLE laggard hedge) is LOW — XLE +3.06 is below the +4 ban, so it is allowed but kept small.
6 · Q6 entry-zone calibration (act now): several no-triggers on 07-20 ran the right way without filling; anchor gap-prone entry bands to the opening-range / VWAP and widen ~0.3× ATR, re-validate vs pre-market.
Applied. levels() caps each entry band near the pre-bell print (within ~0.5% of the prior close) so the intraday-3d triggers fill inside the window; SHORT bands sit at the rejection level with a stop-confirm rollover.
7 · Q7 HIGH-conf gate: HIGH only when same-direction sector RS AND the name's own 5d trend align.
Applied. The single HIGH today is COP-L — XLE bull-flow (+3.06) and COP's own +2.5% 5d uptrend align. All other picks are MED/LOW (bear-flow and counter-sector picks excluded from HIGH).
8 · Q8 EO-reject defer (standing): eps_miss / guide_cut are tracked-defer tags, never hard rejects; >8% gap within a week of scan gets a deferred re-look.
Routed to the post-close earnings-overreaction-scan (1:45pm PDT), which owns swing-rejection logic — not a morning day-trade item.
Performance (running)
Cumulative decisive hit-rate: 54.5% (266W / 488 decisive) as of 7/20 PM · ~997 logged trades after today's 24 issues (12 day-trade + 12 rotation + 0 mean-reversion).
Last scored run (7/20 PM) resolved 49 opens: 0 wins, 3 stops (KO-L, UNP-L, UPS-L), 8 no-trigger, 38 still open — decisive 0/3 = 0% (n=3, noise) on a soft tape (SPY 5d −0.95%).
Rotation thesis-held was a rare CLEAN run: bull 12/12 (100%) and bear 12/12 (100%) — every inflow sector stayed above SPY and every outflow sector below, yet the one resolved rotation pick (UPS-L bear-XLI holdout) still stopped — flow being right does not make the stock pick right (G59).
Bear-sector LONG holdout leg now 0-1 on 7/20 after 0-2 on 7/15 — on WATCH; today's holdouts (MSFT/D/ABBV) kept MED, not up-sized (Q4).
Filter discipline (rejected tracker): 31 correct / 16 wrong / 13 ambiguous of 60 scored; all 16 wrong rejections remain EO / day-trade tags (Q8 stands).
Per-category decisive win-rate badges appear next to the Today's Picks headings (injected from trade_log.json by patch_artifact_winrates.py).
Today's Risk Map
9:30–10:00 ET — two-sided open with a semis-led risk-on lean but MIXED breadth; let the first 15-30m set the range. Do not chase the chip gap; confirm LONG reversals on holds above the open and bank T1 partials early into earnings-week volatility.
SPY 20/50DMA (~744.6–744.8) is the line — SPY closed 742.09 just below, pre-bell 744.66 pokes above. A reclaim + hold keeps the push higher and pressures the SHORT book; a rejection re-asserts the soft-tape pullback and validates the laggard SHORTs.
SHORT entries need a 15-min confirmation close beyond the rejection level (Q5); all shorts are rejection-at-resistance with a stop-confirm rollover. Deeply washed laggards (RSI2 0: C/COST/HD/VZ/NEE/PFE/KMB) can squeeze on any risk-on flush — bank early.
Semis leadership is narrow — the risk-on read rests heavily on SMH +3.24%; if chips fade after the open the MIXED tape can tip risk-off quickly. NVDA/SNOW/PLTR longs are the direct expressions; size to the chip follow-through.
46 open carryovers (07-17 ×24 + 07-20 ×22) reaching their intraday-3d expiry over the next sessions; today's picks avoid every open symbol+direction. The 1:30pm evening eval reconciles them.
Earnings-week & headline risk — 169 reports Thursday, Big Tech in focus, misses punished hard; fresh Canada tariffs + Iran tensions (gold +1.2%) can reverse the risk tape fast. Keep size disciplined.
This Week — Macro Calendar
Mon 7/20 — stocks slipped on rising U.S.–Iran tensions; SPY −0.2% to 742.09, holding the 200DMA.
Mon–Tue 7/28–29 — FOMC meeting (statement + presser, no new dot-plot).
Calendar items are scheduled events; verify exact release times intraday.
Swing — Earnings Overreaction
Updated by post-close earnings-overreaction-scan at 1:45pm PDT. Showing latest accepted swing candidates + open swing positions.
Latest scan on record: 7/20 post-close. Open earnings_overreaction positions are surfaced in the Swing tab from trade_log.json. The post-close scan (1:45pm PDT) owns swing generation. Q8 routed here: eps_miss/guide_cut stay tracked-defer, never hard rejects.
My Book
Entries are saved to both this browser's localStorage AND my_book.json in your Daily Outlook workspace folder. On every artifact load, the book is auto-restored from my_book.json if localStorage has been cleared (which can happen when the daily scheduled task replaces the artifact, or after app restarts).
No positions yet. Use "+ Took" on a pick to add one (inside Cowork).
Daily candles (last ~45 sessions, SIP feed at report generation). Entry band = blue, SL = red, TP1/TP2 = green/teal.